MAIN REPORT: Aotearoa NZ, Global Catastrophe, and Resilience Options

NZCat Main Report for 2023 is now available here (PDF, 118 pages).

This report is about nuclear war and Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ), but it’s much more than that. It raises the issue of global catastrophic risks (GCR) generally, how these may contain most of the risk to NZ, and how a remote island nation can build resilience. This report is a call to action, and an outline of what action could look like.

The report is v1.0, a resource and repository about nuclear war, trade isolation, and other major global risks. It brims with boxed resilience nuggets and examples.

Webinar

Presentation of highlights from the Main Report (30min) & panel discussion (60min): ‘Kōrero on Catastrophe’ – NZCat Webinar (25 Oct 2023).

Next Steps

In 2024, we’d like to talk with people about this work. We know there will be assumptions and misconceptions (ours’ and others’), we will have missed important details, and others’ will miss important details. We support dialogue, a consilience is needed. Our framing of global catastrophe is relevant to everyone. There is content here to support central government, local government, industry, and communities. Reach out, we’re happy to engage, unpack this work, and help identify where/what speaks to your context and sphere of influence. Let’s find the easy wins, the challenges, the steps to take…

Interim project reports

• Hazard Profile for Nuclear War/Winter: ‘Aotearoa NZ Catastrophe Resilience Project (NZCat): Nuclear War/Winter Hazard Profile’ [link]:
• Multidisciplinary Nuclear War/Winter Workshop (Feb 2023): ‘Workshop on Nuclear War/Winter & NZ: Wellbeing of millions and $1 trillion plus at risk, strategic resilience must become bread & butter NZ policy’ [link]
• Qualitative Survey of Experts: ‘NZ and Global Catastrophe: A picture of vulnerability, a pathway to improved resilience: Analysis Report of Interview Data from the Aotearoa NZ Catastrophe Resilience Project (NZCat)’ [link]
• Expert Interview Study: ‘NZ and Global Catastrophe: A picture of vulnerability, a pathway to improved resilience: Analysis Report of Interview Data from the Aotearoa NZ Catastrophe Resilience Project (NZCat)’ [link]

Technical Papers

(peer-reviewed) on Global Catastrophe and Risk Management

• Anticipatory Governance for Preventing and Mitigating Catastrophic and Existential Risks. Policy Quarterly, doi:10.26686/pq.v17i4.7313
• Island refuges for surviving nuclear winter and other abrupt sunlight-reducing catastrophes. Risk Analysis. doi:10.1111/risa.14072
• Food security during nuclear winter: a preliminary agricultural sector analysis for Aotearoa NZ. N Z Med J, 136(1574). PubMed Link.
• Mathematical optimization of frost resistant crop production to ensure food supply during a nuclear winter catastrophe. Scientific Reports, doi:10.1038/s41598-023-35354-7
• Mitigating Imported Fuel Dependency in Agricultural Production: Case study of an island nation’s vulnerability to global catastrophic risks, Risk Analysis, https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/risa.14297
• Impact of the Tambora volcanic eruption of 1815 on islands and relevance to future sunlight-blocking catastrophes. Scientific Reports, doi:10.1038/s41598-023-30729-2