Expert Views on Aotearoa NZ’s Vulnerability and Resilience to Nuclear War and other Global Catastrophes

NZCat Project Team: Matt Boyd, Ben Payne, Simon Terry, Sam Ragnarsson, Nick Wilson

SUMMARY / TLDR

This blog provides brief highlights of the NZCat Interview Study, which consulted diverse experts to estimate the vulnerabilities and resilience options for Aotearoa NZ in the face of a Northern Hemisphere nuclear war.

Statistical Forecast: Nuclear catastrophe is a major global risk, forecast to have a 4–10% probability of occurring by 2100 (at the level of killing at least 10% of the global population).

Aotearoa NZ’s Vulnerability: Remote nations like Aotearoa NZ are susceptible to global trade disruptions, even if not direct nuclear targets.

Aotearoa NZ Catastrophe Resilience Project (NZCat):

• Phase I: Established nuclear war/winter Hazard Profile.
• Phase II: Expert survey to understand impacts and mitigation strategies.
• Phase III (reported here): In depth expert interviews.

Key Findings:

• Agri-Food: Challenges like trade disruption and shortages of commodities; mitigations proposed by the experts included: a National Resilience Framework, a National Food Security Strategy, and localising food distribution.
• Transport & Energy: Dependency on liquid fuel imports and lack of diversification; recommended investments included alternative transport methods and promoting local supply chains.
• ICT & Digital: Vulnerabilities in communications and offshore cloud reliance; experts recommended National Digital Communications Continuity Plan and more local capacity.
• Economy & Finance: Economic instability post-catastrophe and potential breakdown of digital payments; experts suggested strategies included a shift to a more physical cash society and bolstering local circular economies.
• Risk Management: Identified need for better legislation, long-term planning, and investing in resilience.

Implications:

• Complex interdependencies exist across crucial sectors in NZ.
• Basic resilience to severe global perturbations is necessary.
• Inclusion of global catastrophic risks in national risk assessments is vital.

MAIN TEXT

Global Catastrophic Risks

Global catastrophic risks (GCRs) are an array of potential disasters that threaten human civilisation. Such risks include severe pandemics, extreme climate impacts, risks associated with artificial intelligence, massive volcanic eruptions, and the intentional or accidental detonation of nuclear weapons leading to nuclear war.

Individually uncertain, though collectively plausible, the likelihood of a GCR killing 10% of the world’s population by 2100 has been estimated in a 2023 forecasting study to be in the 6–51% range (varying by expert groups).

Nuclear catastrophe ranked as one of the most likely catastrophic risks, carrying a 4–10% chance of killing more than 10% of the global population by 2100.

Nuclear War and the NZCat Resilience Project

The consequences of GCRs, or their cascading interdependencies, could be unbearable. The disruption to global trade likely to follow nuclear war has been studied, and remote nations like Aotearoa NZ appear particularly vulnerable, even if unlikely to be direct targets of nuclear attack. 

The Aotearoa NZ Catastrophe Resilience Project (NZCat) seeks to identify the significant impacts that a Northern Hemisphere nuclear war might have on Aotearoa NZ and to explore how these impacts could be mitigated.

Phase I of NZCat established a nuclear war/winter Hazard Profile through consultation with expert stakeholders. The Hazard Profile provides information on the global risk of nuclear war and possible high-level impacts on Aotearoa NZ. These impacts include severe loss of connectivity, trade collapse, and the effects of a nuclear winter.

Phase II involved a qualitative Survey of Experts based on the mid-range scenario in the Hazard Profile, with the aim of better understanding these impacts on Aotearoa NZ and to canvas mitigation strategies.

The survey respondents suggested individuals for subsequent interview study, and a snowballing approach identified additional experts across key sectors encompassing agri-food, transport, energy, ICT/digital, economy and society, as well as risk management, planning, and foresight.

The NZCat project then interviewed 18 highly knowledgeable key informants.

This blog outlines the main findings from these interviews. Interested readers should refer to the Full Interview Report and the NZCat Project Page for more information (a Preliminary Interview Report was independently prepared and shows convergence with the main findings).

Overview of interviewed experts

Sector/Organisation	Expert’s role
Food/Agriculture
Food and grocery	Senior management role
Farm holding company	Arable Farmer/Managing Director
Government primary industries	Senior scientific role
Agricultural technology	Former Chairman
Public Service	Former senior leader
Energy
Petroleum Supplier	Asset Advisor
Government	Former senior scientific role
Transport
Transport Planning Consultancy	Consultant Engineer
Transport Company	Chief Information Officer
ICT/Digital
Futures & Technology	Consultant
Cloud Provider	Chief Executive
Network Technologies	Business Development Manager
Economy
Economics	Senior academic
Economic Consultancy	Founding Director
Risk & Disaster Management
Local Government	Emergency Management Specialist
Foresight and Futures	Consultant
Urban Planning	Academic
Risk Management	Academic

Findings

Agriculture & Food

Interview participants indicated that the Aotearoa NZ agri-food sector would face substantial challenges following a Northern Hemisphere nuclear war with consequent nuclear winter. These challenges include severe trade disruption (potentially zero-trade in a pessimistic scenario) leading to a shortage of commodities on which agri-food production and supply relies.

These commodities include liquid fuel, agri-chemicals, seed, fertiliser and machinery, and processing equipment. Productive yield would almost certainly fall, perhaps significantly.

“You know, there might be six passes across a paddock of wheat in a season. By the time you, um, you know, direct drill it, You know, spray it. Whatever you need to do with it, and then harvest it [that requires regular fuel supply].” (Interview 5)

Supply chain vulnerabilities could lead to potential livestock oversupply and animal welfare concerns, and there would likely be labour supply uncertainties. Worker absenteeism could be particularly acute.

To address these risks and bolster resilience, strategic measures are essential. These could include the development of a National Resilience Framework, including a Food Security Strategy, as well as localising food distribution to reduce transportation demands, addressing seed storage issues, ensuring animal welfare, and fostering trade continuity with key partners after the fact, particularly Australia. Trade continuity could be nurtured in a strategic and well-planned way prior to an event of such magnitude occurring by ensuring the necessary infrastructure is available.

Major interdependencies were identified among food production, transport, and energy supply, indicating that comprehensive planning and collaboration are vital for mitigating these risks and enhancing preparedness. As one interviewee put it:

“And you know what is enough to feed New Zealand? Um, instead of chasing markets, I guess it would just have to be a whole, uh, New Zealand wide agricultural look at, like, how do we work it so that everyone you know, not over production in one area for no reason. And we’ve got no export facilities, you know, or no reason to export. Um, it would just have to be the whole of New Zealand coming together and trying to grow things in the right area. Basically, that’s the simplest way to do it.”

Transport & Energy

The interviews revealed that Aotearoa NZ’s transport and energy sectors are intimately entwined and vulnerable should a global catastrophe severely impact trade and connectivity. While hydroelectricity offers a strong renewable energy base, dependence on imported liquid fuel and lack of preparation for major crises were seen as amplifying factors for the major challenges triggered by GCRs.

“That’s something that worries me at the moment … [referring to closure of Marsden Point Refinery] we don’t get crude, we don’t get [it] at all anymore. You know if we don’t have diesel. You know, um, it’s pretty simple the alternative, isn’t it? … [It’s the basis] of how we farm at the moment. There’s no way to get back to horse … there’s no machinery to do it that way … all the mechanisation we use is run on diesel.” (Interview 3)

Critical impacts are primarily due to this dependence on liquid fuel imports and an overreliance on diesel powered road trucking with limited transport diversification. Digital infrastructure essential for transport and energy supply could be degraded without backup plans or workarounds having been devised.

One goal would be to create more resilient and self-sufficient domestic transport, simultaneously advantageous for meeting climate emissions reductions and sustainability objectives.

Expert participants suggested that mitigation approaches could involve more balanced investment in alternative transport methods (such as coastal shipping and rail), and transition to alternative fuel transport options like electric rail, electrification of road transport, and exploring hydrogen trucks. There could be improvements in data security and IT infrastructure resilience; promotion of localised supply chains and people-centric accessible urban environments; and plans for a wider range and scale of risks.

Participants also emphasised the need to ensure enduring long-term policy, develop an improved National Fuel Plan (including comprehensive fuel supply chain and contingency planning), and overcome challenges to biofuel production. However, mitigating fuel import dependency will require multi-faceted and phased solutions. Effective crisis preparedness and enduring strategic planning, resilient to political shifts and populism, are crucial.

ICT & Digital

Expert participants across Aotearoa NZ’s digital, ICT, and communications sectors identified critical vulnerabilities, including communications and critical system maintenance challenges in a trade isolation context, as well as heavy reliance on offshore cloud service providers leading to a lack of domestic capacity and capability.

“It’s a lot like the supermarkets. It’s a lot like the overseas banks, but it’s many times worse because it underpins all of those other sectors and the government. … It’s not just one vertical, it’s everything. So what can be done about that? As I say, I think the first thing is, uh, legal recognition of cloud as Critical National Infrastructure. In such that the government now has a, uh is mandated to do something about this and to allow regulations and laws which guarantee a certain level of security in the supply of digital services … And I think the other point that I delineate from that but which follows from the first point, is that they need to ensure that there is a vibrant local digital, economy, including the all those lower levels of cloud providers, uh, down to owning data centres and the cloud services on top, then the systems on top so that we’re not held hostage by overseas interests, which we are at the moment.” (Interview 13)

To address these concerns and enhance resilience, key recommendations include enhanced cross-sector collaboration, legal recognition of cloud computing as Nationally Critical infrastructure (NCI), the implementation of a National Digital Communications Continuity Plan, the establishment of a National Technology Investment Agency, and the appointment of a National Chief Technology Advisor (see table below).

These measures, along with investments in local capacity, rigorous auditing, testing, and a focus on self-reliance and open-source technology, could help safeguard critical systems and ensure resilience, particularly in the face of global catastrophes. Interviews with sector experts further underscored the importance of proactive measures to strengthen resilience, promote local expertise, and bolster industry capacity in safeguarding vital Digital and ICT infrastructure.

Economy & Finance

The economic and financial implications of a major global catastrophe are complex and potentially dire, stemming from trade and infrastructure disruptions. Experts expressed concerns about the severity of economic instability and downturn following an event of such scale and the need for thorough planning and foresight.

“My guess is that they [the Reserve Bank] are prepared for a local event, say, a Wellington earthquake or something like that. […] Right now, you know, think of a localised event, but spread over the whole country, that looks very, very different. Um, and I don’t think they’re prepare[d] for that, they don’t think about that” (Interview 12)

Key challenges include the possible breakdown of payment systems with need to transition to a physical cash society, and limited preparedness for nationwide calamities. While centralised responses have proven effective in certain instances (like responding to COVID-19), experts acknowledged that responses may falter in scenarios marked by substantial digital system disruptions, thereby highlighting the critical dependence of economy and society on functioning ICT.

Digital security and resilience are critically important. Aotearoa NZ needs proactive preparedness for various scales of emergency responses, especially in situations where digital communications and economic transactions are compromised. The proposition of bolstering a circular, locally-focused economy was introduced as a resilience strategy, aligning with the broader theme of self-sufficiency and community-based solutions.

National Plans, Strategies, and Frameworks recommended by sector experts * Legal/Regulatory arrangements > Statutory basis for National Security Arrangements > Clear and appropriate definition of critical infrastructure (that includes essential digital services such as cloud computing or mobile communications, as well as neglected infrastructure such as coastal shipping) > Legal provisions to maintain democracy > Changing procurement rules to encourage local solutions * National Risk Assessment > Publicly facing National Risk Register * National Resilience Framework * National Technology Investment Agency * National Chief Technology Advisor * Pre-disaster strategies > National Risk Strategy > National Energy Security Strategy > National Food Security Strategy > Digital Infrastructure Resilience Strategy > Long-term Supply Chain Strategy * Catastrophe response plans: > National Fuel Plan > Contingency Plan for Major Technological Outage > National Digital Communications Continuity Plan > Reserve Bank Plan for No Digital Payments > Zero-trade Plan > Strategy for Re-establishing Trade with Australia * Long-term recovery strategies * Plan for physical knowledge repositories

Risk Management & Foresight

In addition to sector experts, NZCat interviewed experts in risk management and foresight. Risk experts identified challenges in preparing for catastrophic scenarios, the complexities involved in addressing large-scale risks, and the tensions between central and local coordination.

The experts expressed the need for better government collaboration and improved legislation. Specific concerns focused on the perceived inadequacy of the 2023 Emergency Management Bill. A stronger legal framework was proposed.

“Yeah, that’s a really good question, and I don’t know if there’s an easy answer, but I suspect with this I feel as though the next this iteration of the emergency management bill has brought us forward from the 20-year-old, you know, legislation that we had. So, it’s definitely … heading in the right direction. [But] It’s not fit for purpose for a global catastrophe. No, I don’t think it is.” (Interview 11).

Furthermore, the absence of a statutory foundation for national security arrangements was noted, with these arrangements often reliant on Cabinet decisions. This approach can be problematic, particularly in managing major hazards. Participants also questioned the effectiveness of national security plans and underscored the prevalence of short-term thinking as a systemic weakness.

The potential challenges that Aotearoa NZ might face in the event of a Northern Hemisphere nuclear war scenario or other catastrophic events necessitate effective foresight and long-term management. Proposed solutions include longer-term planning, investing in resilience, establishing non-partisan pathways for strategic thinking, and considering the creation of an independent think tank or government organisation for risk strategy. Participants emphasised the importance of resilience beyond specific hazards, the need to develop redundancy, and conduct comprehensive scenario analysis.

Summary

The NZCat interview study has concluded that a nuclear war, resulting in severe trade disruption as well as nuclear winter could have wide-ranging and considerable impacts on Aotearoa NZ, but interview participants identified mitigation options to limit the impact of this catastrophe and other large scale global risks.

The table highlights key messages provided by expert interview participants across sectors.

Agri-Food	Transport, Fuel, Electricity
Impact: Collapse of export markets; Shortage of imported diesel; Supply chain issues for agri-inputs; Workforce uncertainties; Failure of essential technologies; Commercial uncertainty Mitigation: National Resilience Framework; Food Security Strategy; Re-establish regional trade	Impact: Shortage of imported fuels; Failure of road trucking; Insufficiently diverse transport options; Vulnerability to digital outages Mitigation: Preparedness & plans; Local supply chains; Alternative fuel supply; Diversify/electrify transport options; People-centred cities; Resilient electricity networks
Economy	ICT/Digital
Impact: Economic instability & downturn; Failure of digital payments; Impacts amplified by limited preparedness Mitigation: Facilitate a cash economy; Digital resilience to enable government; Circular localised economies	Impact: Failure of communication systems; Disconnection from offshore cloud & suppliers Mitigation: National Digital Communications Continuity Plan; Scenarios, auditing, and testing; Local communications self-reliance; Open-source digital for resilience
Risk Management
Key approaches: * Include global catastrophe in national risk assessment * Multi-layered collaboration * Develop effective emergency management legislation * Preparedness for a broad range of disasters

Implications & Next Steps

This interview study of 18 experts across critical sectors re-iterated the complex interdependencies among sectors and the vulnerabilities of Aotearoa NZ to global catastrophe. Human systems are complex adaptive systems, embedded in complex adaptive ecological systems, and the interconnections, and therefore potential failure points, are ubiquitous and global.

Degradation of functions, whether digital connectivity, fuel or energy supply, agricultural yield, or transport options, could cause severe cascading effects across connected systems and a feedback spiral that degrades all systems.

Concrete solutions were suggested, and these include taking a systematic approach to national risk, with a set of interconnected critical sector strategies and response plans. 

To avoid the risk of industry, sectoral, societal, or global collapse, basic resilience to the most severe perturbations is required. Such resilience likely requires the inclusion of GCRs in national risk assessment activities, coordinated anticipatory governance that transcends traditional silos, as well as investment in resilience strategies, response plans, and critical infrastructure.

Many suggestions for how to achieve this exist, and the NZCat team will present a suggested policy agenda for resilience to nuclear risk and other GCRs in the project’s Main Report due by the end of the year. An NZCat webinar and panel discussion will be streamed for free in October 2023 and will provide an overview of the Hazard Profile, Expert Survey, Interview Study, and a set of technical papers. Links will be provided on this website.