Our work

Existential and Global Catastrophic Risks

Artificial Intelligence

Public Health & Health Economics

Technology & Society

Patient Safety

Teamwork in Healthcare


Existential and Global Catastrophic Risks

Wilson N, Prickett M, Boyd M (2023). Food security during nuclear winter: a preliminary agricultural sector analysis for Aotearoa New ZealandN Z Med J;136(1574):65-81. (paywalled, preprint here)

Wilson N, Payne B, Boyd M. (2023). Food supply during nuclear winter: Mathematical optimization of frost resistant crop production for a temperate island nation. Scientific Reports. doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-35354-7.

Boyd M, Wilson N. (2023). Assumptions, uncertainty, and catastrophic/existential risk: National risk assessments need improved methods and stakeholder engagement. Risk Analysis. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.14123

Wilson N, Valler V, Cassidy M, Boyd M, Mani L, Brönnimann S. (2023). Impact of the Tambora Volcanic Eruption of 1815 on Islands and Relevance to Future Sunlight-Blocking Catastrophes. Scientific Reports. doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-30729-2 

Boyd M, Wilson N. (2022). Island refuges for surviving nuclear winter and other abrupt sunlight-reducing catastrophes. Risk Analysis. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.14072

Boyd M, Baker M, Nelson C, Wilson N. (2022). The 2021 Global Health Security (GHS) Index: Aotearoa New Zealand’s improving capacity to manage biological threats must now be consolidated. N Z Med J 135(1560):89-98.

Boyd, M., & Wilson, N. (2021). Anticipatory Governance for Preventing and Mitigating Catastrophic and Existential Risks. Policy Quarterly, 17(4), 20–31. doi:10.26686/pq.v17i4.7313

Boyd M, Wilson N. (2021). Optimizing island refuges against global catastrophic and existential biological threats: Priorities and preparations. Risk Analysis. doi.org/10.1111/risa.13735

Boyd M, Wilson N. (2021). Failures with COVID-19 at the international level must not be repeated in an era facing global catastrophic biological risks. Aust NZ J Pub Health. Feb 22. https://doi.org/10.1111/1753-6405.13082

Boyd M, Wilson N, Nelson C. (2020). Validation analysis of Global Health Security Index (GHSI) scores 2019. BMJ Global Health. 5:e003276. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2020-003276

Boyd M, Wilson N. (2020). Existential Risks to Humanity Should Concern International Policymakers and More Could Be Done in Considering Them at the International Governance Level. Risk Analysis; Online First:DOI: 10.1111/risa.13566.

Boyd M, Baker M, Nelson C, Wilson N. (2020). The 2019 Global Health Security Index (GHSI) and its Implications for Pacific Regional Health Security. N Z Med J;133(1516):83–92.

Boyd M, Baker MG, Wilson N. (2020) Border closure for island nations? Analysis of pandemic and bioweapon related threats suggests some scenarios warrant drastic actionAust N Z J Public Health;44:89-91. doi: 10.1111/1753-6405.12991

Boyd M, Wilson N. (2019). The Prioritization of Island Nations as Refuges from Extreme Pandemics. Risk Analysishttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/risa.13398

Boyd, M., Wilson, N. (2018). Existential risks: New Zealand needs a method to agree a value framework and how to quantify future lives at risk. Policy Quarterly. Online first.

Boyd M, Mansoor OD, Baker MG, Wilson N. (2018). Economic evaluation of border closure for a generic severe pandemic threat using New Zealand Treasury methodsAust N Z J Public Health

Boyd M, Baker MG, Mansoor OD, Kvizhinadze G, Wilson N. (2017). Protecting an island nation from extreme pandemic threats: Proof-of-concept around border closure as an intervention. PLOS One. Jun 16;12(6):e0178732. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0178732. eCollection 2017.

Artificial Intelligence

Boyd M, Wilson N. (2020). Catastrophic Risk from Rapid Developments in Artificial Intelligence: What is yet to be addressed and how might New Zealand policymakers respond? Policy Quarterly; 16(1): 53–61.

AI Forum NZ (Adapt Research as Research Partner) (2019). Artificial Intelligence for Health in New Zealand. Auckland. AI Forum of NZ.

AI Forum NZ (Adapt Research as Research Partner) (2019). Towards our Intelligent Future. Auckland. AI Forum of NZ.

Boyd M., Wilson N. (2017). Rapid developments in artificial intelligence: How might the New Zealand Government respond? Policy Quarterly;13(4):36-43.

Public Health & Health Economics

Hong, CY., Boyd, M., Wilson, G., Hong SC. (2022). Photorefraction screening plus atropine treatment for myopia is cost-effective: A proof-of-concept Markov analysis. Clinical Ophthalmology.

Wilson N, Mansoor OD, Boyd M, Kvalsvig A, Baker MG. (2021) We should not dismiss the possibility of eradicating Covid-19: Comparisons with smallpox and polioBMJ Global Health;(9 August).

Boyd M, Scott D, Squirrell D, Wilson G (2020). Proof-of-concept calculations to determine the health-adjusted life-year trade-off between intravitreal anti-VEGF injections and transmission of COVID-19. Clinical and Experimental Ophthalmology. DOI: 10.1111/ceo.13855.

Wilson N, Boyd M, Kvalsvig A, Chambers T, Baker M (2020). Public Health Aspects of the Covid-19 Response and Opportunities for the Post-Pandemic Era. Policy Quarterly;16(3):20–24.

Boyd M, Kho A, Wilson G, Wilson N. (2019). Expediting cataract surgery in New Zealand is cost-effective for falls prevention and improving vision-so what might be the next steps? N Z Med J;132(1501):73-78.

Boyd M, Kvizhinadze G, Kho A, Wilson G, Wilson N. Cataract surgery for falls prevention and improving vision: modelling the health gain, health system costs and cost-effectiveness in a high-income country. Injury Prevention.

Boyd M, Wilson N. (2018). Just ask Siri? A pilot study comparing smartphone digital assistants and laptop Google searches for smoking cessation advice. PLoS ONE;13(3):e0194811. 

Wilson N, Clement C, Boyd M, Teng A, Woodward A, Blakely T. (2018). The long history of health inequality in New Zealand: occupational class and lifespan in the late 1800s and early 1900s. Aust N Z J Public Health;(E-publication 14 February).

McLeod M, Kvizhinadze G, Boyd M, Barendregt J, Sarfati D, Wilson N, Blakely T. (2017). Colorectal cancer screening: How health gains and cost-effectiveness vary by ethnic group, the impact on health inequalities, and the optimal age-range to screen. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev.

Boyd, M., Blakely, T., Atkinson, J. (2016). Ethnic counts on mortality, NZ Cancer Registry and census data: 2006-2011. NZMJ, 129:1429.

N. Wilson, M. Boyd, S. Nisa, C. Clement, M.G. Baker (2016). Did exposure to a severe outbreak of pandemic influenza in 1918 impact on long-term survival? Epidemiology and Infection. 144(15):3166-3169. doi: 10.1017/S0950268816001606

Technology & Society

Madell, D., Boyd, M. (2015). Using mobile phones to control social interactions. Encyclopaedia of Mobile Phone Behaviour. IGI Global.

Boyd, M. (2011). As We Build Our World We Build Our Minds: The causal role of technology in the development and evolution of human psychological traits. PhD Thesis. Victoria University of Wellington.

Patient Safety

Weller, J, Cumin, D, Torrie, J, Boyd, M, Civil, I, Madell, D, et al. (2015). Multidisciplinary Operating Room simulation-based team training to reduce treatment errors: a feasibility study in New Zealand hospitals. NZMJ, 128:1418.

Boyd, M. (2014). A Method for Prioritizing Intervention Following Root Cause Analysis. Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice: Philosophy Special Issue. doi: 10.1111/jep.12272.

Lee, H., Cumin, D., Devcich, D., Boyd, M. (2014). Expressing concern and writing it down: an experimental study investigating transfer of information at nursing handover. Journal of Advanced Nursing. doi: 10.1111/jan.12484.

Teamwork in Healthcare

Weller, J, Cumin, D, Civil, I, Torrie, J, Garden, A, MacCormick, A, Gurusinghe, N, Boyd, M, et al. (2016). Improved scores for observed teamwork in the clinical environment following a multidisciplinary operating room simulation intervention. NZMJ.

Nakarada-Kordic, I., Weller, J., Webster, C., Cumin, D., Boyd, M., Merry, A. (2016). Assessing the similarity of mental models of operating room team members and implications for patient safety: aprospective, replicated study. BMC Medical Education, 16:229.

Boyd, M., Cumin, D., Lombard, B., Torrie, J., Civil, N., Weller, J. (2014). Read-back improves information transfer in a simulated clinical crisis. BMJ Quality and Safety. doi: 10.1136/bmjqs-2014-003096.

Weller, J., Boyd, M. (2014). Making a difference through improving teamwork in the operating room – a systematic review of the evidence on what works. Current Anesthesiology Reports. doi 10.1007/s40140-014-0050-0.

Weller, J., Boyd, M., Cumin, D. (2014). Teams, Tribes and Patient Safety: Overcoming barriers to effective teamwork in healthcare. The Postgraduate Medical Journal. doi: 10.1136/postgradmedj-2012-131168.

Weller, J., Torrie, J., Boyd, M., Frengley, R., Garden, A., Ng, W.L., Frampton, C. (2014). Improving team information sharing with a structured call-out in anaesthetic emergencies: a randomised controlled trial. British Journal of Anaesthesia. doi: 10.1093/bja/aet579.

Weller, J., Shulruf, B., Torrie, J. Frengley, R., Boyd, M., Paul, A., Yee, B., Dzendrowskyj, P. (2013). Validation of a measurement tool for self-assessment of teamwork in intensive care. British Journal of Anaesthesia, 111(3): 460-7.

Cumin, D., Boyd, M. Webster, C., Weller, J. (2013). A Systematic Review of Simulation for Multidisciplinary Team Training in Operating Rooms. Simulation in Health Care, 8:171-9


Henning, M., Malpas, P., Ram, S., Rajput, V., Krstic, V., Boyd, M., Hawken, S. (2016). Students’ responses to scenarios depicting ethical dilemmas: A study of pharmacy and medical students in New Zealand. J Med Ethics; 42:7 466-473.

Weller JM, Henning M, Civil N, Lavery N, Boyd M, Jolly B. (2013). Trainee approaches to learning for the ANZCA Final Examination. Anaesthesia and Intensive Care, 41(5): 631-40.

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