New Zealand should up its game in risk identification, analysis, and prevention. This is the key message from former GNS principal scientist Kelvin Berryman when discussing a new risks report. He told the Listener, ‘New Zealand is still creating its own disasters waiting to happen.’
The risks report in question was published in April 2021 by former Chief Science Advisor Peter Gluckman and co-author Anne Bardsley. It details New Zealand’s need to address ‘uncertain but inevitable’ risks. The report has garnered media attention such as RadioNZ’s coverage here, and the feature in the Listener available here (paywalled).
The general thrust of ‘Uncertain but Inevitable’ is that governments are responsible for keeping people safe, the New Zealand government has developed a National Risk Register, which allegedly includes maximum credible threats, however this is kept secret when it ought to be public, and that much more institutional transparency and accountability of risk assessment are needed. There should be an apolitical focus on high-impact risks that overcomes three particular failures: (1) risk identification, assessment and communication, (2) human factors (especially issues of cognitive biases), and (3) policy/political dimensions.
I certainly applaud the efforts to improve the scale, scope and transparency of risk analysis in New Zealand. A few additional points warrant mention:
Firstly, it is very notable that the former Chief Science Advisor is critiquing the National Risk Register, one supposes that he was privy to at least some of its contents in his former official capacity, and if he feels the register and/or risk processes surrounding it in Aotearoa/New Zealand are inadequate then we should certainly take note.
Second, the focus on ‘uncertain but inevitable’ risks is surely too narrow. The Listener piece states that a spokesperson for the Prime Minister said, ‘New Zealand had a good track record of identifying and managing risks and was committed to ensuring public discussion about nationally significant risks.’ However, New Zealand’s approach to risks has traditionally been a reactive one. Even forward-looking endeavours like EQC are designed for the aftermath. A track record, even a good one, is not necessarily good for unprecedented and unexpected risks. Notably, our ‘successes’ with Covid-19, the Christchurch earthquake and so on, were with regard to risks that were neither unprecedented, nor unexpected. What about emerging risks such as biological engineering, misaligned artificial intelligence, solar geoengineering, rising digital totalitarianism, newly discovered risks from space, and the established but unaddressed risks of nuclear, volcanic and asteroid/comet induced winters, let alone technological risks yet to be identified.
Thirdly, the Listener reported that the authors of ‘Uncertain but Inevitable’ believe it would be theoretically possible to have an all-encompassing risk register, however, they felt that such a register could overwhelm its audience, or result in generic or vague risks. I would counter this point by saying that the point of a risk register is to formalise analysis, to be sure the assessment is systematic and comprehensive. But the register needs to record dimensions beyond the traditional coarse ‘likelihood’ and ‘magnitude’ categories. By adding best probability estimates, best impact on life-years and the economy estimates, considerations of tractability, lists of possible interventions and best estimates of cost-effectiveness (all constantly updated as new information comes to hand), then risks can be ranked by expected annual utility loss. A risk budget can be determined, and this budget allocated to the highest priority risks. It may be that the most important risks are not those that we traditionally pour investment into, such as road safety or flood banks, but rather risks such as the next Covid-19 or a nuclear winter. That remains to be determined by the process just outlined. The register would not be overwhelming if we start by addressing the Top 10 risks.
Fourthly, Berryman is cited in the Listener article as saying that we need more and better science communication. There is plenty of knowledge and research about risks, but this doesn’t always find its way into public policy. This is something I completely agree with and at Adapt Research we hope to initiate a New Zealand Human Futures Forum (currently a funding application is under consideration), which would focus on nurturing discussion and information sharing about global catastrophic and existential threats in a way that is relevant to Aotearoa/New Zealand. This risk category is notably absent from almost all risk policy work. We have previously noted this omission at the level of the UN, and locally in the domains of artificial intelligence and catastrophic biological threats. And yet, when the approach taken in point three above is deployed, such risks may be the most rational ones to address.
Adapt Research Ltd 